TwiceOver BlogWhat moved in the markets, why it moved, and the math under it.https://twiceover.ioen-usOil settled at minus $37.63 in April 2020 because the barrels had nowhere to gohttps://twiceover.io/blog/oil-below-zero-april-2020https://twiceover.io/blog/oil-below-zero-april-2020On 20 April 2020, the US oil futures contract for May delivery settled at minus $37.63, its first price below zero since it began trading in 1983. It expired the next day. Anyone still holding it then had to take the barrels in Oklahoma, where the tanks were nearly full, so holders paid to get out.Mon, 09 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMTIV crush: a call bought before earnings can lose 21% when the stock rises 4%https://twiceover.io/blog/iv-crush-call-before-earningshttps://twiceover.io/blog/iv-crush-call-before-earningsBefore a company reports, a call's price already includes the jump the news could bring. Once the news is out, that part of the price drains away, and traders call the drain IV crush. In our example the stock rises 4% overnight and the call loses 21%.Fri, 06 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMTMarvell's offer of $1,132 a share for Lumentum (LITE) was worth $771 by Monday's closehttps://twiceover.io/blog/marvell-lumentum-offer-valuehttps://twiceover.io/blog/marvell-lumentum-offer-valueMarvell is paying 4.5 of its own shares for each Lumentum share. The two companies priced those shares at about $1,132. At the close on Monday 2 November they were worth $771.35, and Lumentum traded $86.95 below even that.Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMTMichael Burry says his $912 million bet against Palantir cost $9.2 millionhttps://twiceover.io/blog/13f-burry-palantir-putshttps://twiceover.io/blog/13f-burry-palantir-putsA fund's quarterly holdings report lists an option at the value of the shares behind it. So Burry's Palantir puts showed as $912 million. He said he paid $9.2 million for them.Mon, 02 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMTKelly rule: a 40% bet on a coin that wins 60% of flips loses moneyhttps://twiceover.io/blog/kelly-rule-bet-sizehttps://twiceover.io/blog/kelly-rule-bet-sizeA bet on a coin that lands heads 60% of the time can still lose money. At a 40% bet on every flip, 60 wins in 100 turn $25 into $19.57. The Kelly rule puts the fastest-growing bet at 20%, which ends at $187.25.Fri, 30 Oct 2026 11:00:00 GMTFed decision: bond traders expect higher rates than the Fed’s own forecasthttps://twiceover.io/blog/fed-decision-two-year-above-forecasthttps://twiceover.io/blog/fed-decision-two-year-above-forecastOn Monday the US government paid 4.68% to borrow for two years. The Fed’s September forecast keeps the Fed’s own rate near 4.1% through 2027. The bond market’s prices point to more rate increases than the Fed has forecast.Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:00:00 GMT15 of 25 stocks stayed inside the move options priced for earnings, and the other 10 averaged double ithttps://twiceover.io/blog/earnings-implied-move-averagehttps://twiceover.io/blog/earnings-implied-move-averageBefore a company reports, the options market prices the average size of move it expects. A few big moves pull an average up, so most stocks finish inside it. Of 25 big reports from July to October 2026, 15 stayed inside and the other 10 averaged double their priced move.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 11:00:00 GMTCitigroup took extra legal risk on its whole earnings release, except the CEO’s wordshttps://twiceover.io/blog/earnings-release-filed-or-furnishedhttps://twiceover.io/blog/earnings-release-filed-or-furnishedCitigroup put its whole third-quarter earnings release under an extra legal rule that lets investors sue, except the three paragraphs quoting Citigroup’s CEO. Of 14 large companies we checked, six banks chose the “filed” label and eight kept the default.Fri, 23 Oct 2026 11:00:00 GMTSilence Therapeutics (SLN) closed 42 cents under Merck KGaA's $20 offer: 38 cents is interest, 4 cents is deal riskhttps://twiceover.io/blog/silence-therapeutics-merck-spreadhttps://twiceover.io/blog/silence-therapeutics-merck-spreadSilence Therapeutics closed Monday at $19.58 against Merck KGaA's $20.00 cash offer. The same $19.58 in a Treasury bill earns about 38 cents by the end of March, so the market asks about 4 cents for the risk that the deal fails.Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00:00 GMTIn the 1987 crash, four sellers made 14% of the stock saleshttps://twiceover.io/blog/1987-crash-four-sellershttps://twiceover.io/blog/1987-crash-four-sellersOn Black Monday, 19 October 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%. The report President Reagan ordered counted who sold. Four sellers accounted for $2.85 billion of stock, 14% of the day's sales.Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:00:00 GMTAn option writer's riskiest 90 minutes come after expiration day's closing bellhttps://twiceover.io/blog/expiring-option-after-the-closehttps://twiceover.io/blog/expiring-option-after-the-closeOn its last day, a stock option can still be exercised until 5:30 p.m. New York time. News after the 4:00 close can get an option that looked worthless used against its writer.Fri, 16 Oct 2026 11:00:00 GMTAfter September's CPI, there is no new yearly inflation rate until 10 Decemberhttps://twiceover.io/blog/september-cpi-next-yearly-rate-10-decemberhttps://twiceover.io/blog/september-cpi-next-yearly-rate-10-decemberThe CPI report on 14 October carries the last 12-month inflation rate until 10 December. October 2025 was never measured, so the report due on 10 November has no yearly rate. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates twice in between.Wed, 14 Oct 2026 11:00:00 GMT