Game
Guess the gap
A company reports earnings. You see the move options had priced. Guess how far the stock moved the next day.
A company reports its earnings four times a year, and the stock often jumps or drops the next morning. Before the report, option prices show how big a move traders are paying for, up or down. That size is the priced move. It says nothing about direction.
Report 1 of 5Score so far: none yet
How far did the stock move the next day, up or down?
Apple reported on 30 Jul 2026. Options had priced a move of 3.8%.
All five answers
| Report | Priced | Moved |
|---|---|---|
| Apple | 3.8% | down 7.4% |
| NVIDIA | 5.9% | up 8.7% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 3.3% | up 2.5% |
| Costco | 3.0% | up 2.9% |
| Robinhood | 9.6% | down 3.6% |
What it shows
In 3 of these 5 reports, the stock moved less than options had priced.
priced movemove that happened
The priced move is a size, set by what traders paid. Some reports land inside it and some land far outside. One report tells you little. The count across many reports is the thing to look at.
Source Closing prices. Each priced move is computed from option prices at the last close before the report. Checked 12 Oct 2026.
How it is played
Each report shows the priced move. You guess the size of the next day's move, close to close. Direction is not part of the guess.
A guess within 2 points counts as a hit.