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TwiceOver Blog

What moved in the markets, why it moved, and the math under it. Some posts are games and tools you can try.

No. 012 Mon 9 Nov 2026
Other markets that move stocks · History

Oil settled at minus $37.63 in April 2020 because the barrels had nowhere to go
No. 011 Fri 6 Nov 2026
How options are priced · Concept

IV crush: a call bought before earnings can lose 21% when the stock rises 4%

can lose 21%
No. 010 Wed 4 Nov 2026
Mergers, acquisitions and spin-offs · Actuality

Marvell's offer of $1,132 a share for Lumentum (LITE) was worth $771 by Monday's close
No. 009 Mon 2 Nov 2026
Who owns what · History

Michael Burry says his $912 million bet against Palantir cost $9.2 million
No. 008 Fri 30 Oct 2026
Risk and position sizing · Concept

Kelly rule: a 40% bet on a coin that wins 60% of flips loses money

loses money
No. 007 Wed 28 Oct 2026
The economy and the Fed · Actuality

Fed decision: bond traders expect higher rates than the Fed’s own forecast
No. 006 Mon 26 Oct 2026
Earnings · Concept

15 of 25 stocks stayed inside the move options priced for earnings, and the other 10 averaged double it
No. 005 Fri 23 Oct 2026
Reading SEC filings · Concept

Citigroup took extra legal risk on its whole earnings release, except the CEO’s words

6 of 14 earnings releases put under the extra rule
No. 004 Wed 21 Oct 2026
Mergers, acquisitions and spin-offs · Actuality

Silence Therapeutics (SLN) closed 42 cents under Merck KGaA's $20 offer: 38 cents is interest, 4 cents is deal risk
No. 003 Mon 19 Oct 2026
How markets work · History

In the 1987 crash, four sellers made 14% of the stock sales
No. 002 Fri 16 Oct 2026
Option expiration and assignment · Concept

An option writer's riskiest 90 minutes come after expiration day's closing bell
No. 001 Wed 14 Oct 2026
The economy and the Fed · Actuality

After September's CPI, there is no new yearly inflation rate until 10 December

57 days from this yearly CPI rate to the next one